Author: chris

For each of the following questions, answer the questions asked about the passage/argument. Identify everything Prof. Rogacs asks you to identify, and explain your answers when Prof. Rogacs instructs you to do so. If you find a fallacy in a passage, you must discuss why you think the fallacy exists. For example, if you think a passage contains a biased generalization, do NOT simply say “it is biased because the sample fails to represent the target.” You must EXPLAIN the way in which, or in what respect, the sample fails to represent the target.

1. As part of his work for NASA, Dr. Murdock was asked to find out what percentage of people in the continental united States saw Haley’s Comet when it was last visible. He randomly selected three major cities, Seattle, Cleveland, and Boston, and polled 1000 randomly selected people from these cities. He finds that fewer than 5% of the people he interviewed saw the comet, so he concludes that fewer than 5% of people in the continental United States saw the comet. Discuss whether Murdock is using a generalization or an analogy, name the sample and the target, and discuss whether there are any fallacies present in the argument (if so, why; if not, why not?).

2. In 1935, in order to get newspapers to subscribe to his weekly polls, George Gallup promised he would predict the winner of the 1936 presidential election. He actually guaranteed the newspapers that were subscribing to his poll that if he was wrong, he would refund all their money. And that was just part of the bet. Gallup also guaranteed that he would predict the percentages more accurately than the leading poll of the day, conducted by the Literary Digest magazine. The Literary Digest poll had picked the winner in every presidential election since 1916. The Digest poll was conducted on a vast scale. A staff of several thousand workers stuffed ballots into envelopes, in some years as many as 20 million of them. The ballots were mailed to names polled from automobile registration lists and telephone directories. The assumption was that the more people you interview, of course you’re going to get closer to the truth. But the method George Gallup relied on was called quota sampling. The idea was to canvass groups of people who were representative of the electorate. Gallup sent out hundreds of interviewers across the country, each of whom was given quotas for different types of respondents; so many middle-class urban women, so many lower-class rural men, and so on. Gallup’s team conducted some 3,000 interviews, but nowhere near the 10 million polled that year by the Literary Digest. Who is going to correctly predict the winner of the 1936 presidential election, the Literary Digest or George Gallup? Explain your answer by discussing the methodology of each pollster, and by using the terminology provided to you in chapter 10.

3. As Bob is driving on an exit off the freeway, he comes to a stop light and sees a homeless man asking people for spare change. “See, he’s a perfect example of why we shouldn’t be giving welfare benefits to the homeless,” Bob mutters to his wife. “He’s too lazy to get a job, but he’s healthy enough to beg people for their hard-earned money all day long.” What are the sample and the target in Bob’s argument? Are there any inductive fallacies present in Bob’s reasoning? If so, explain why. If not, explain why not.

4. The National Rifle Association’s website conducted a poll of gun owners in America, asking whether the respondents are opposed to gun-control laws. 2000 American gun-owning NRA members went online and responded to the poll. The poll result shows that 80% of them are opposed to gun-control laws. The group concludes that most people in America are opposed to gun-control laws. For this passage, determine whether the argument is an analogical argument or a generalization (explain your answer), and explain which inductive fallacies, if any, are present in the argument.

5. What is the definition of a “randomly chosen sample” (according to the definition discussed in your text), and what is the goal of randomly choosing a sample?

6. What is the definition of a self-selected sample (according to the textbook or instructor), and what is the problem with using a self-selected sample as the basis of an inductive argument?

7. Explain the relationship between error margin and sample size (assuming the confidence level remains the same), why the concept of error margin is necessary in an inductive argument, and how error margin is applied to the target population. You may want to use an example to help explain your answer.

8. Dad is making a “Hunter’s Stew”. The stew includes chunks of beef, potato, carrot and barley in a thick broth full of many hearty spices. As the stew is simmering in a pot on the stove, Son walks into the kitchen and says, “Let’s see if this stew tastes any good!” Son gets a big spoon and begins to dip his spoon into the top of the pot. Before Son has a chance to get the spoonful of stew, Dad yells, “Mix the stew up before you taste it!” For this passage, name the intended sample, the intended target, the property in question, and explain why Son should stir the stew before he tastes it.

9. When Haley’s Comet hovered over Jerusalem in 66 CE, the historian Josephus prophesied it meant the destruction of the city. Jerusalem fell four years later during a failed uprising against Roman occupiers, thus confirming the power of the comet. Is this argument subject to any causal fallacies discussed in the PowerPoint presentation for chapter 11? Explain your answer.

10. Jack is hired by a company to see if a new product not yet on the market, Topocal, will cause hair to grow on the heads of bald men. He recruits one thousand bald men, and randomly divides them into two groups: Five hundred men in group A rub Topocal on their heads everyday, and five hundred men in group B rub water from an unmarked bottle on their heads (a placebo) everyday. After six months, Jack finds that there has been hair growth in 7% of group A, and 2% of group B. a) What is the control group? What is the experimental group? b) What is “D” in this case? c) What type of study is this (controlled cause to effect, non-controlled cause to effect, or non-controlled effect to cause)? Explain your answer briefly. d) Are the results of this study statistically significant (use the table in chapter 11 to find the answer to this question)? e) What is the target population to which we hope to apply the results of this study?

11.   For the last ten years, unemployment has increased in January and retail sales have gone down in February. Clearly, the decrease in retail sales is caused by the increase in unemployment. Is this argument subject to any of the following causal fallacies: post hoc ergo propter hoc, reverse causation, ignoring an underlying cause? Explain your answer.

12. Determine whether the following statement is an example of Method of Difference Reasoning or Method of Agreement Reasoning (and briefly explain your answer). Fund-raising director for a public radio station: “I know that our music director hates it when we play classical music. But go back and look at our most successful fund drives; every big day has been a day heavily loaded with classical music.”

13. Determine whether the following statement is an example of Method of Difference Reasoning or Method of Agreement Reasoning (and briefly explain your answer). “I had a lot of noise on my car stereo when the engine was running, until I thought maybe that the way to fix the problem is to install a 4MH choke coil in the hot wire from the battery to the stereo. I did it, and it cured the problem.”

14      Determine whether the following statement is an example of Method of Difference Reasoning or Method of Agreement Reasoning (and briefly explain your answer). Sharon has observed that her teacher sometimes seems to be in a bad mood. “Well,” she thinks, “it seems to happen when people haven’t done their assignments. That must be it.”

15.       Jack hears on the evening news that several scientific studies have demonstrated that taking acetaminophen causes liver damage. Jack immediately runs to his medicine cabinet and throws away all his painkillers that contain acetaminophen, and he recommends to his friends and family that they do the same. Jack now believes that acetaminophen will cause liver damage in him and his loved ones. Discuss whether Jack’s reaction is justified (is Jack correctly interpreting the claim that “acetaminophen causes liver damage?”). Be sure to use the concepts in chapter 11 to help explain your answer. You should discuss the nature of general causal claims.

16. Determine whether this is an inductive generalization, or an analogical argument. Identify the sample and target, if this is a generalization, or the analogues, if this is an analogical argument. Identify the property in question, and discuss which, if any, fallacy exists in the passage:

Remark made while driving on the Pennsylvania Turnpike: “We’ve seen nine cars with license plates from west of the Mississippi today, and six of them have been from Texas. Texans must travel more than other people.”

17.Six months ago, several of Molly’s friends joined the Trimtime Fitness Center. Each of them participated in Trimtime’s weight-reduction and fitness regimen. All reported substantial weight reduction, and all are visibly slimmer. Molly is convinced. She joins Trimtime and enrolls in the same program, hoping and expecting to see the same results. She is especially delighted to learn that Trimtime had adjusted its program to make it even more effective in a shorter period of time. Discuss whether this is an analogical argument or an inductive generalization, and discuss the strength or weakness of the argument, using the appropriate terminology from chapter 10.

18. Bill: “If you don’t believe in God, you’re much more likely to commit suicide. You can tell that by looking at places like Sweden and Norway where there’s a higher percentage of atheists than the norm and their per capita suicide rate is higher, too. ”

What causal fallacy from among the following choices is Bill making (reverse causation, ignoring an underlying cause, post hoc ergo propter hoc, cum hoc ergo propter hoc, ignoring statistical regression)? Discuss your answer.

“Starbuck Returns To It’s Roots”

You are probably use to seeing starbucks coffee shops everywhere that you might not realize that the

company went from 11 stores in 1987 to 2,600 in the year of 2000. This incredibly rapid growth sprang form the company’s ability to create a unique experience for customers who wanted to buy this dietint brand of lattes and mochas where ever they found themselves. At Starbucks’ core, there was alo a culture of treating each customer as a valued guest who should feel comfortable relaxing and taking in the ambience of the stre. Whether toy were in the company;s founding location in Seattle, Washington, or at the other end of the country in Miami, Flordia, you knew what to espect when you went to a Starbucks. This uniform culture was truly put to the test in the face of massive expansion, however, and by 2006 Starbucks chairman and former CEO Howard Schultz knew something had gone wrong.  He noted that  “As I visit hundreds of Starbucks store in the cities around the world, the enterpreneurial merchant in me sensed that something intrinsic to Starbucks’ brand was missing. An aura. A sprit. The stores were lacking a certain soul.” Starbucks’ performance has become lackluster, with hundreds of planned store opening being cnacled and hundreds more store being closed.

So, Schultz too the dramatic step of coming back as CEO and engaging ina companywide effort to chnage the corporate culture back to what it had been before its expansion. All 7,000 Starbucks store were closed for a single afternoon as part of training effort of 135,000 baristas. Quality control was a primany mission; baristas were instructed to pour every glass od espresso like honey from a spoon, to preserve the flavor. This emphasis on quality over speed ran counter to the principles of mass production, but it was just what the company needed to ensure ot could retain its culture. Espresso machines that obscured the customers’ view were replaced with lower profile machines that allowed baristas to look directly at the guest while making beverages. And ” assembly-line production,” like making several drinks at once, was discouraged in favor of slowly making each drink for each customer.

Schultz is convinced his efforts to take culture back to its roots as a neighborhood coffee shop-one ebtrabced with the :romabce of coffee” and treating every customer as an old friend- has saved the company. Today, Starbucks earns more than $3.6 billion in quarterly revenue and operates more than 18,000 store in 60 countires around the globe.

Prompt: Respond to the following questions based on the case study “Incident One: Starbucks Returns to Its Roots,” in Chapter 18 of Organizational Behavior.

a. What are the impacts of change to both the internal and external culture?

b. As an organization such as Starbucks shifts from a pre-modern theoretical model where tasks are valued highly and people are viewed as small piece parts to the large wheel of progress to a post-modern theoretical model many Organizational Behavior components become critical to a successful outcome. For example, what behaviors and perceptions (both internally and externally) have to change in order to make this organizational shift from task-oriented to people oriented? What did the CEO recognize in employee roles and responsibilities as necessary adjustments in order to make this shift?

c. What role did norms or dynamics play in the CEO’s reaction to his visits?

d. What potential challenges (specific to organizational behavior) can be identified through the norms, group dynamics, or roles that seemed to exist prior to the implemented changes? e. What potential opportunities (specific to organizational behavior) can be recommended through the norms, group dynamics, or roles that existed prior to the implemented changes?

Format: This assignment should follow these formatting guidelines: 250 words minimum to approximately 500 words, double spacing, 12-point Times New Roman font, one-inch margins, and citations in APA format

Read the Hart Research Associates Report of January 20, 2015 titled Falling Short? College Learning and Career Success: Selected Findings from Online Surveys of Employers and College Students Conducted on Behalf of the Association of American Colleges and Universities — and highlight your critical reading ideas of the reading. Analyze the different opinions of employers vs. students. Quote from two (2) opinions that you think effectively answer the question of whether students have sufficient critical thinking skills and other skills required for entry level corporate jobs. Then add your own opinion based on facts and conclude with your own REFLECTION on how the changing nature of the American economy, its wealth inequality and its change in hiring and keeping employees is affecting this discussion. Bring to class some three paragraphs of this material pre-written for Thursday October 8, the day of the midterm. SAMPLE OUTLINE: I. Introductory paragraph – introduce the 2015 Hart Research Associates Report and explain why it is different from other such reports in 2009 and 2013. II. Discuss one of the opinions of the employers about hiring students into the workforce of 2015. Quote it and agree or disagree. III. Discuss one of the opinions of the students surveyed that disagree with employers about hiring students into the workforce of 2015. Quote it and agree or disagree. IV. Explain in your RESPONSE (no YOU, clear concise sentences, no autobiographical material) what your own opinion is. V. CONCLUSION GIVEN IN CLASS NOTE: THE FIRST FOUR PARAGRAPHS OF THE MIDTERM ARE 50% OF THE GRADE THE CONCLUSION IS THE OTHER 50% OF THE GRADE YOU HAVE UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY OCTOBER 8 TO TURN IN THE WHOLE ASSIGNMENT ON CANVAS YOU ALSO HAVE AN EXTRA CREDIT (10 POINTS ON THE MIDTERM SCORE) ASSIGNMENT INCLUDED. DUE OCTOBER 10 2015 Hart Research employerstudentsurvey.docxPreview the documentView in a new window (https://alamo.instructure.com/courses/942490/files/57877276/download?wrap=1) 2015 Hart Research employerstudentsurvey-1.pdfPreview the documentView in a new window (https://alamo.instructure.com/courses/942490/files/57877277/download?wrap=1) use the links above to get all the information and cite the resources from those links

Oak Seed Leadership Executive Course Fall 2015 Book Summary Assignment Read the following books, and summarize the key revelations you’re able to identify from them: 1. Good to Great by Jim Collins

Management in International Business
Phase 1 Individual Project
Instructor’s name
Your name
As the senior vice president of a bank in charge of strategy and implementation I would have many issues to deal with regarding foreign expansion. I will have to look at the macro environment conditions of the country involving interest rates and the economic situation. I will also need to consider whether the bank will be a subsidiary or a branch and the benefits or negative effects of either. There will also be several other factors that will be addressed and some of those will include the competitive advantage for our bank versus a manufacturing business as well as foreign trade issues. The CEO will need to address some questions regarding social and economic responsibility policies when doing business internationally and our banks policies regarding such decisions.
Understanding the macro environment conditions that are uncontrollable by our bank can be categorized best using the acronym PESTEL which consists of political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal factors. Political factors are ones that would include tax policies, availability of government contracts, safety regulations, shifts in political party and views, and trade agreements and tariffs. Economic factors are ones that address situations regarding comparative foreign exchange rates and the state of the economy. Economic factors are difficult to assess since economic forecast are constantly changing and tied to global economic stability but none the less are needed components in order to maintain a stable profit. Social factors can include how the demographics of a community view emphasis on job creativity or room for self guided thought on the job. Social factors can influence how a company defines job descriptions and might be necessary to attract the best possible local talent for the job. Technology can play a major role in the local environment where we expand our banking business. While the newest technology can improve working efficiency, it can sometimes be unnecessary depending on the local demographics. Environmental factors can be important in both short term and long term. Short term factors could include doing business in an area that is highly susceptible to natural disasters that could potentially disrupt business operations. In the long term we would need to be concerned with making sure we can continue business by protecting against unsustainable practices. Many legal parameters will need to be assessed including local labor practices which could also be affected by international laws (wisegeek, 2015).
While PESTEL is a broad range of issues that I will need to address there are other factors that can influence our decision to expand into a foreign market. The organizational form of our business needs to be considered. Our banking structure will either need to be a foreign subsidiary or a single branch or representative office. If we decide to use a foreign subsidiary, we will be increasing direct competition with local banks which could potentially take profits away from local retail clients. The host country could impose restrictive rules or regulations limiting our business growth to protect the local businesses and ultimately this could affect our profits. The other option is a local branch or subsidiary which will typically be focused on wholesale or investment banking. Either way both options will need to be considered to determine which is best for or banking structure abroad (worldbank.org, 2007).
International trade between many countries has been growing for several years but the trade to and from Asia which is one of the largest economies will continue steadily for the next decade at least. One example of how our bank can benefit from trade boom in Asia is to fill a growing need in cross-border payments. Many banks do extremely well at servicing large corporations but currently in Asia small to medium sized companies make up nearly 90% of total exports.  Our bank can fill this growing void by partnering with credit insurers, cross border payment companies or even supply chain financiers. Instead of trying to compete with all the supply chain complexities it could be very beneficial to form partnerships which can help us gain a competitive advantage over other banks and increase profit margins from the partners existing clients. This would help us capture more of the financial business of the supply chain (Latham, December 12, 2013).
Banks differ from manufacturing companies when implementing international strategy in many ways but both businesses do have some similarities. Some similarities would include the need to be aware of the cultural differences between U.S. business men and the business people in foreign countries. Understanding the cultural and the proper way to deal with locals can make a huge difference in the success or failure of business relationships. Employment laws and regulations are also similar for both banks and manufacturing companies in foreign markets. The difference between manufacturers and banks is a bank’s ability to use subsidiaries instead of having a brick and mortar type business structure in a foreign country. Another difference is a bank’s ability to work with many different industries instead of focusing on a select few.  These differences give a banking business a different competitive advantage compared to a manufacturing business.
Besides the similarities and differences between banks and manufacturing companies, banks have other trade issues. In the past banks were completely barred from opening branches and subsidiaries in host countries but that has relaxed in the past few decades. Now many banks with the intent of expanding internationally have to take on certain business characteristics of the host country, whether good or bad for the banks business. Also some countries require that the maximum direct foreign investment by the bank be below or within a certain percentage of the banks overall foreign business. With these types of trade requirements and restrictions it can make a significant impact on where our bank should expand internationally (nber.org, 2015).

It is for my consumer behavior class. The essay should be written in standard form (12 times new roman, double spaced, 1 inch margins). I attached some notes provided by my professor. The essay should incorporate some of the terms from the notes. The essay question is: Do you believe American’s concern for the environment is a stronger value then their materialism? Yes or No and Why?

Health Care Consumer: Trends and Marketing
Instructions: I rather hear about your experiences, experiences of others you know, opinions and ideas when answering the following questions. Must write up 100 to 150 word count.
Do you think the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) has worked? Explain.
Are your rights violated if you go to the ER and when you see the receptionist to tell them why you are there, everyone can hear?  Are your rights violated when in an urgent care center, you are separated by a curtain only, and everyone can hear what is said, or if you go to the doctors and you hear the doctor talking to the patient in the next room?
When you go to the doctor, you are asked to sign a HIPAA form.  Has anyone ever read it?  If so, what does it really say?
What are some ways in which you share health information today? What are the risks associated with sharing information? What types of sharing are most effective?
http://www.wired.com/2014/07/medical_apps/ What do you think about this article?
Chapter 11 discusses advertising limitations.  Consumers are surrounded by advertisements from all forms of medium – television, radio, print, and the Internet.  Advertisers must be aware of the limitation of the noise created by the bombardment of advertisements to the consumer.  As a result of the influx of advertisements, consumers may ultimately feel a particular advertiser is self-promoting their product or service.  Advertisers recognize that their efforts are more effective when the consumer’s awareness of their product or service is limited.  In this scenario, the consumer may gain knowledge on the service or product by viewing or reading the advertisement.  The consumer then becomes familiar with the product, and may wish to explore further.  Thoughts?
https://www.whitehouse.gov/healthreform What did you see that surprised you? What did you see that you already knew? What is happening right now with health care reform?
What are some aspects of health care reform besides the mandate that everyone should have coverage?
http://www.hhs.gov/healthcare/facts/timeline/timeline-text.html What has changed, or do you think will change, with this timeline? How does that affect consumers?
Research  the following in your community:
One web-based resource
Write a 350 word paper in which you address the following:
Who is their target audience?
How are they marketing to their target audience?
How effective is their marketing approach?
What could be done differently to improve their marketing?

During the Great Recession, like any other economic downturns, as unemployment rises, aggregate income declines causing a major decline in tax collections. On the other hand, with the rise in unemployment, spending on safety net programs rise. So, there are not too many good options available to resort the health of the national economy.   It will be very difficult to defend cuts in the federal government programs and especially the programs geared to sustain the minimum of the standard of living for the recent “poor.” So, government needs to increase its borrowing. Deficit spending refers to government spending exceeding what it brings in federal income and corporate taxes during a certain period. Deficit spending hence increases government debt. Most economists accept that deficit spending is desirable and necessary as part of countercyclical fiscal policy. In such a case, government increases its borrowing and hence its deficit to compensate for the shortfall in aggregate demand. This is derived from Keynesian economics, and has been the mainstream economics view.   Following John Maynard Keynes, many economists recommend deficit spending to moderate or end a recession, especially a severe one. When the economy has high unemployment, an increase in government purchases creates a market for business output, creating income and encouraging increases in consumer spending, which creates further increases in the demand for business output. (This is the multiplier effect).  This raises the real gross domestic product (GDP) and the level of employment and lowers the unemployment rate. Government borrowing under such circumstances increases the demand for borrowing and thus pushes interest rates up. Rising interest rates can “crowd out” (discourage) fixed private investment spending, canceling out some of the demand stimulus arising from the deficit

Write an essay analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of deficit spending and the effects of federal government borrowing on the economy i.e., the “crowding out” effect.

Review the Case application: APPRAISING THE SECRETARIES AT SWEETWATER U at the end of Chapter 9 of your textbook. Review the three questions at the end of the case. Think about how you might answer those questions. Now, answer these questions:

1. Do you think that the experts ‘recommendations will be sufficient to get most of the administrators to fill out the rating forms properly? Why? Why not? What additional actions (if any) do you think will be necessary?
2. Do you think that Vice President Winchester would be better off dropping graphic rating forms, substituting instead one of the other techniques we discussed in this chapter, such as a ranking method? Why?
3. What performance appraisal system would you develop for the secretaries if you were Rob Winchester? Defend your answer.