How does the hotel business react to the business cycle? Explain why hotel building continues after demand turns down.

We have repeatedly made the point in this chapter that lodging is capital intensive and cyclical. Because of long lead times, supply often continues to grow even after demand has stopped growing or begun to decrease. As a result, in the 11 years ending in 1993, the lodging industry lost $33 billion while construction continued throughout the period. In 1997, however, hotel profits were once again at a peak.

Securitization is selling an ownership or a debt instrument (such as a bond) in a property through the public security markets. Major developments have included the widening of lodging’s access to debt through CMBSs, to equity through IPOs and secondary offerings, and to both equity and debt through REITs. An additional form of financing has involved the public funding through a special tax. The impact of securitization has been to enable a considerable boom in hotel building. Although securitization brings advantages in the availability of capital, it also has the inherent risks associated with a falling stock market.

The hotel investment decision has three dimensions: financial, real estate, and operating. The large amount of debt associated with hotel construction gives leverage, and in the international market, changing currency values can also provide financial advantages. Low interest rates are especially advantageous to leveraged deals. Hotel real estate can provide an inflation hedge, and the speed with which hotel rates can be raised provides flexibility in rentals rates few other forms of real estate offer. Real estate development also offers profits to development companies, including hotel companies 379380such as Marriott, which are active developers. A final means of profiting from a hotel is from its day-to-day operations, although contrary to popular opinion this is not always the largest source of profit.

The tendency toward overbuilding in a cyclical industry is sometimes exaggerated by the segmentation strategies of major hotel companies. Segmentation can lead to a multibrand hotel company seeking to build one of each of its brands in a market. In some cases, the company may feel that being represented in a major market is more important than the short-run profit potential. Building multiple brands can also lead to problems of encroachment where the same reservation network is divided between two or more properties, and in many cases, multiple properties with the same brand in a market can reduce the advantage of a franchise. Management companies have grown up to serve nonoperator owners. In difficult economic times, the services of these companies are especially in demand as lenders become “involuntary owners.” These same difficult times, however, often offer those with operating know-how major entrepreneurial opportunities.